Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 41,028
2 Louisiana 38,230
3 Mississippi 36,962
4 South Dakota 36,862
5 Florida 35,035
6 Alabama 35,010
7 Iowa 33,817
8 Arkansas 32,613
9 Tennessee 32,596
10 South Carolina 31,699
11 Arizona 31,655
12 Georgia 30,588
13 Wisconsin 30,168
14 Texas 29,781
15 Nebraska 29,639
16 Idaho 29,423
17 Nevada 29,169
18 Utah 29,101
19 Illinois 27,208
20 Oklahoma 26,915
21 Missouri 26,176
22 Rhode Island 26,139
23 New York 25,066
24 Kansas 24,925
25 New Jersey 24,827
26 Delaware 23,560
27 North Carolina 23,266
28 District of Columbia 23,144
29 Maryland 22,406
30 California 22,176
31 Indiana 22,043
32 Minnesota 21,480
33 Montana 20,849
34 Massachusetts 20,737
35 Kentucky 19,881
36 Virginia 19,358
37 Puerto Rico 17,738
38 Connecticut 17,622
39 New Mexico 17,332
40 Alaska 16,007
41 Michigan 15,946
42 Ohio 15,418
43 Wyoming 15,232
44 Colorado 14,726
45 Pennsylvania 14,503
46 Washington 13,401
47 West Virginia 11,048
48 Hawaii 9,959
49 Oregon 9,321
50 New Hampshire 7,078
51 Maine 4,398
52 Vermont 3,086

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 1,012
2 South Dakota 902
3 Montana 612
4 Nebraska 494
5 Wisconsin 470
6 Utah 444
7 Iowa 400
8 Idaho 382
9 Wyoming 368
10 Mississippi 357
11 Arkansas 350
12 Missouri 349
13 Illinois 333
14 Indiana 333
15 Oklahoma 327
16 New Mexico 326
17 Minnesota 304
18 Alaska 276
19 Tennessee 266
20 Kentucky 264
21 Nevada 251
22 Alabama 250
23 North Carolina 229
24 Kansas 223
25 South Carolina 220
26 Colorado 208
27 Ohio 187
28 West Virginia 182
29 Texas 181
30 Florida 168
31 Rhode Island 165
32 Delaware 163
33 Georgia 162
34 Michigan 161
35 Virginia 141
36 Arizona 126
37 Pennsylvania 122
38 Puerto Rico 118
39 Maryland 113
40 Louisiana 108
41 New Jersey 101
42 District of Columbia 95
43 Massachusetts 93
44 Connecticut 90
45 Oregon 90
46 Washington 86
47 New York 84
48 California 77
49 New Hampshire 67
50 Hawaii 62
51 Maine 24
52 Vermont 19

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,824
2 New York 1,694
3 Massachusetts 1,410
4 Connecticut 1,273
5 Louisiana 1,231
6 Rhode Island 1,087
7 Mississippi 1,065
8 District of Columbia 908
9 Arizona 800
10 Illinois 747
11 Florida 741
12 Michigan 733
13 South Carolina 706
14 Georgia 699
15 Delaware 681
16 Maryland 667
17 Pennsylvania 666
18 Texas 604
19 Indiana 581
20 Alabama 568
21 Arkansas 558
22 Nevada 554
23 North Dakota 530
24 Iowa 484
25 New Mexico 443
26 Ohio 433
27 Missouri 430
28 California 429
29 Tennessee 420
30 Minnesota 402
31 Virginia 400
32 Colorado 381
33 North Carolina 377
34 South Dakota 356
35 New Hampshire 342
36 Washington 307
37 Kentucky 305
38 Idaho 297
39 Oklahoma 295
40 Kansas 294
41 Nebraska 287
42 Wisconsin 272
43 Puerto Rico 238
44 Montana 224
45 West Virginia 222
46 Utah 168
47 Oregon 147
48 Hawaii 130
49 Maine 108
50 Wyoming 98
51 Vermont 92
52 Alaska 86

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 North Dakota 14
2 South Dakota 9
3 Alabama 5
4 Arkansas 5
5 Florida 4
6 Georgia 4
7 Indiana 4
8 Montana 4
9 Illinois 3
10 Massachusetts 3
11 Mississippi 3
12 Nebraska 3
13 Oklahoma 3
14 Tennessee 3
15 Arizona 2
16 Idaho 2
17 Iowa 2
18 Kansas 2
19 Kentucky 2
20 Louisiana 2
21 Minnesota 2
22 Missouri 2
23 North Carolina 2
24 South Carolina 2
25 Texas 2
26 Wisconsin 2
27 Alaska 1
28 California 1
29 Delaware 1
30 District of Columbia 1
31 Michigan 1
32 Nevada 1
33 New Hampshire 1
34 New Mexico 1
35 Oregon 1
36 Pennsylvania 1
37 Puerto Rico 1
38 Rhode Island 1
39 Utah 1
40 Virginia 1
41 West Virginia 1
42 Colorado 0
43 Connecticut 0
44 Hawaii 0
45 Maine 0
46 Maryland 0
47 New Jersey 0
48 New York 0
49 Ohio 0
50 Vermont 0
51 Washington 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Lincoln Arkansas 169,764 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 157,514 2 99
Trousdale Tennessee 152,428 3 99
Lafayette Florida 149,608 4 99
Lake Tennessee 136,403 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 44,947 254 91
Richland South Carolina 39,819 376 88
York South Carolina 21,962 1403 55
Orange California 18,404 1702 45
Pierce Washington 11,315 2411 23

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 5,203 1 99
Kenedy Texas 4,950 2 99
Emporia city Virginia 4,863 3 99
Galax city Virginia 4,727 4 99
Randolph Georgia 4,279 5 99
Richland South Carolina 625 791 74
Davidson Tennessee 468 1123 64
Orange California 444 1177 62
York South Carolina 335 1464 53
Pierce Washington 266 1699 45

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons